Locks, Surprises and Upsets: Who will win at the 83rd Academy Awards?

24 Feb

With the big show only a few days away, I’ve stopped my hemming and hawing and FINALLY whittled down my Oscar picks. Are there several no-likely-surprises-here locks to win certain categories? Yes. But, are there some potential upset categories also? Hells to the yes! I’ve outlined several of the likeliest upset categories below, along with my picks for most of the major awards that will be given out on Sunday!

Best Cinematography, art direction, visual effects, sound editing and sound mixing: Inception. Yep, that’s a 5fer for Inception!

Best Film Editing: The Social Network

Best Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network. Aaron Sorkin gets some serious Academy love with this one; I’d call this a lock

Best Animated Feature: HAS to be Toy Story 3. Another lock!

Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network. Though the best director winner usually agrees with the best picture winner, I’m thinking this will not be the case this year! Upset potential is here, but slim.

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter. Though there’s been some recent rumbling that this very well may be an upset category (hello, Hailee Steinfeld, who should have been up for best actress anyways), but I think Melissa Leo’s performance and momentum will keep this category for her. We’ll see what happens, but I think the potential for an upset is relatively high.

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter. Duh. This is one category where I think there is slim to no chance of anyone other than Bale taking home the prize.

Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. Another quasi lock, but could Annette Benning or Michelle Williams come in and steal her thunder?

Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech. Hand’s down, the best part (for me) about The King’s Speech was the acting, and Colin Firth absolutely deserves to win best actor.

Now for the BIG one: who will win best picture?

Will win: The King’s Speech. There’s been such a huge momentum shift from The Social Network for best picture to The King’s Speech, I’d be VERY surprised if it shifted last minute. I still think this a close call, so it will be interesting for all us staying with the telecast until the bitter end.

However, while I do recognize this as two pony race to the finish, I would seriously be so so happy if The Fighter pulled out a win here. I loved The King’s Speech, and think it deserves all the praise it has gotten, but for me, The Fighter was the best film of the year, with The Social Network coming in closer to the bottom of my best picture list.

Looking for Oscar ballots?  EW.com has a nifty one here, and so does Twig & Thistle here!

Do you see any major upsets on the horizon? Think Melissa Leo’s somewhat controversial Oscar ads might hurt her in the long run? Do you see any way there won’t be a British sweep of the male acting awards? Is the award Natalie Portman’s to lose? Leave your predictions (crazy and otherwise!) and what you wish would win in the comments!

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